CARE - Climate of the Adriatic REgion in its global context

Project website
Title CARE - Climate of the Adriatic REgion in its global context
Abstract The CARE project is designed as a comprehensive study of the climate of the Adriatic region covering the processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean, and their interaction. The project is based on measured data, on modelling of the past and on projection of the future climate, and it utilizes state-of-the-art methods of data analysis and modelling.

The project objectives include the spatial and temporal analysis of climate features in the Adriatic region, focusing on the multi-decadal changes in temperature and precipitation indices of extremes. Special interest will be given to the analysis on droughts, floods and heat waves; and the impacts of climate change to the tourism in Croatia will be investigated.

The geostatistical analysis will result in the gridded fields of climate variables which will further serve as a reference dataset for validation of the global and regional climate models' products as well as the input into the regional flash flood guidance and early warning systems.

Current and future climate in the Mediterranean region will be examined by means of the global climate models' results using the statistical and dynamical downscaling methods. The estimates will be made from a set of dynamically downscaled simulations with the regional climate model RegCM (RegCM4.2) with the downscaling horizontal resolution of 12.5 km.

Apart from using the atmosphere-only regional climate model, the results from coordinated experiments using coupled ocean-atmosphere models from the EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX projects will also be analysed. Moreover, impacts of modes of internal variability in the Mediterranean region will be explored using intermediate complexity global model SPEEDY.
The trends and inter-decadal variability of sea level in the Mediterranean will be estimated; and their contribution will be identified and evaluated. Moreover, the coastal flooding in the Northern Adriatic will be examined, with the focus on the differences in meteorological forcing that result in flooding of the western coast or the eastern coast. The temporal evolution of the occurrence of extreme sea levels in the Northern Adriatic will be studied in the context of the sea level rise. Finally, the different variants of semi
Key words Adriatic, Mediterranean, sea level, climate change, climate variability, climate models, climate extremes
Contact person and Researchers from DHMZ prof. dr. sc. Mirko Orlić, Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb
Renata Sokol Jurković, dipl. ing., mr. sc. Melita Perčec Tadić, mr. sc. Lidija Srnec, mr. sc. Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, dr. sc. Ksenija Zaninović, dr. sc. Ivan Güttler
Duration 7/2014 - 6/2018
Partners Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb
Meteorological and Hydrological Service