Projects
Olive phenology in the Adriatic region under the influence of climate change
| Title | Olive phenology in the Adriatic region under the influence of climate change |
| Abstract | The Adriatic region, including Croatia is increasingly affected by the impacts of climate change. Olive trees (Olea europaea L.) are particularly sensitive to variations in temperature and precipitation, which can shift flowering and fruit ripening periods, reduced yields, increase vulnerability due to frost or heat stress, and ultimately threaten the sustainability of traditional olive cultivation. Understanding the relationship between the regional micro-climate and the olive phenology is essential for accurately predicting the timing and duration of key phenological stages. This project aims to investigate the impact of climate variability on olive phenology and implement robust predictive models tailored to the Adriatic region. Long-term phenological and meteorological observations from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), combined with gridded climate datasets (E-OBS) and ERA5-Land reanalysis, will provide a comprehensive basis for analysis. Key agro-climatic indices, including growing degree days, chilling units, spring temperature metrics, heat stress indicators and seasonal precipitation totals, will be calculated to access the drivers of phenological changes. Statistical and machine learning approaches, including Multiple Linear Regression, Principal Component Regression, Partial Least Squares and Random Forest, will be implemented and validated to predict the timing of key phenological stages such as the beginning and the end of the flowering period and fruit ripening. Model performance will be evaluated aiming to provide a robust and reliable predictive model. The model will be pilot-test using an independent dataset provided by the network of new agro-climatological mesurements and observations funded by the project. This project will deliver the first comprehensive agro-climatological assessment of olive phenology in the Adriatic region, along with a validated, region-specific phenological prediction model to support climate adaptation. By identifying high-risk areas and zones potentially suitable for olive cultivation, it will provide actionable guidance for farmers and agricultural advisors. |
| Key words | agroclimatology, phenology, the Adriatic, climate change, olive |
| Lead organization | University of Rijeka, Faculty of Physics |
| Partner institutions | University of Rijeka, Faculty of Physics
Faculty of Science in Zagreb Ruđer Bošković Institute Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service |
| Principal investigator | Andreina Belušić Vozila, PhD, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Physics |
| Researchers from DHMZ | Josip Meštrić, mag. phys. – geophys. |
| Duration | 15/10/2026 – 14/10/2029 |
| Financing agency | Croatian Science Foundation |